February 10, 2026 | 07:07 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta -PT BNI Sekuritas, the securities and investment arm of Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI), sees continued potential for Indonesia’s domestic bond market in 2026, despite early-year fluctuations in global and domestic financial markets.
The outlook is supported by expectations of declining government bond yields and a more accommodative stance on interest rates.
Amir Dalimunthe, Head of Fixed Income Research at BNI Sekuritas, said the Indonesia Composite Bond Index could deliver total returns of around 7-8 percent this year. He projected the yield on 10-year government bonds to average 6.2 percent, potentially easing toward 5.8 percent by year-end.
“This outlook reflects more accommodative interest rate policies and ongoing developments in both global and domestic macroeconomic conditions,” Amir said in a written statement on Tuesday, February 10, 2026.
The anticipated decline in yields is seen as a key factor supporting the appeal of government bonds, particularly for investors prioritizing yield stability amid market uncertainty. The bond market is viewed as a more defensive investment compared with higher-risk assets during the early phase of 2026.
For short-term investors, BNI Sekuritas highlighted money market mutual funds as attractive instruments due to their high liquidity and relative stability compared with stocks. However, their returns remain influenced by interest rate movements and banking liquidity conditions.
With the number of capital market investors in Indonesia reaching 21 million in early 2026, according to Indonesia Stock Exchange data, BNI Sekuritas stressed the importance of a measured investment strategy. Growing investor numbers do not always correspond with readiness to navigate market volatility.
Given these conditions, BNI Sekuritas recommends a balanced approach combining government bonds and money market instruments to provide a portfolio buffer amid ongoing global and domestic uncertainties.
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