February 11, 2026 | 01:41 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Chief Investment Officer, Equity, at Manulife Asset Management Indonesia (MAMI), Samuel Kesuma, predicts that the stock market will continue to experience high fluctuations over the next two to three months. These fluctuations are caused by the ongoing uncertainty until the deadline set by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) in May 2026.
In response to MSCI's warning, the Indonesian government has taken several steps, including increasing the free float to 15 percent, disclosing share ownership data from 5 percent to 1 percent, and accelerating the demutualization of the stock exchange. "On the positive side, this event will accelerate the reform of the stock exchange to be healthier in the long run and restore the appeal of fundamentally-based stocks," said Samuel in a written statement on Wednesday, February 11, 2026.
In anticipation of short-term stock market volatility, MAMI's strategy is to continue investing in fundamentally sound companies with reasonable valuations. According to Samuel, in the short term, widespread selling makes the valuations of stocks with strong fundamentals increasingly attractive.
Furthermore, Samuel stated that companies that believe their stock prices are currently below their fair value respond to market corrections by announcing buyback programs. "After the panic levels subside, we see opportunities for recovery in stocks that record good profit and cash flow growth," he said.
In its announcement, MSCI stated that investors are concerned about the transparency of Indonesia's stock ownership structure. "Although there have been minor improvements to the free float data of the Indonesia Stock Exchange, investors have noted that fundamental issues related to investment capabilities persist due to lack of transparency in the stock ownership structure and concerns about potential coordinated trading behavior that disrupts the formation of accurate prices," MSCI said in its announcement, quoted on Wednesday, January 28, 2026.
To address these concerns, MSCI said that more detailed and reliable information about stock ownership structure is needed, including monitoring of high stock ownership concentrations, to support assessments of free float and investment capabilities across all stocks in Indonesia. Therefore, MSCI has decided to temporarily freeze stock adjustments. The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) and the Financial Services Authority (OJK) then responded by planning to adjust stock listing rules, including the free float provisions, by March 2026.
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