September 7, 2025 | 12:44 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Currency observer, Ibrahim Assuaibi, predicts that the exchange rate of Indonesia's rupiah will close weaker in the range of Rp16,420-Rp16,470 per US dollar on Monday, September 8, 2025. Meanwhile, previously the rupiah closed weaker by 16 points at the level of Rp16,431 per US dollar on Thursday, September 4, 2025.
Ibrahim explained several factors that caused the strengthening of the US dollar index at the end of this week's trading. First, the market is optimistic that the US central bank, The Federal Reserve, will cut the benchmark interest rate at the end of this month. This is because the Labor Statistics Bureau recorded a decrease in job vacancies in July to 7.18 million from 7.35 million in June.
"This figure is worse than the market's expectation of 7.4 million and triggers concerns about the worsening conditions of the US labor market," Ibrahim said in a written statement, as quoted on Sunday, September 7, 2025. Another factor is the uncertainty about US trade tariffs following an appeals court ruling that deemed most of the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump illegal. Trump hinted at appealing the decision to the Supreme Court.
Meanwhile, in the domestic market, the weakening of the rupiah against the dollar is partly influenced by the statement of the global credit rating agency, Fitch Ratings, which warned of the impact of demonstrations on Indonesia's credit rating. According to Fitch Ratings, demonstrations accompanied by violence could have a negative impact on Indonesia's credit profile if it leads to a weakening of medium-term growth prospects.
Fitch also argued that if social-political tensions continue, then the widening of the state revenue and expenditure budget (APBN) deficit could exceed estimates. The cause is limited state revenue. According to Ibrahim, Fitch's comment echoes concerns about the tension in Indonesia, which occurs amidst public complaints about the gloomy economic conditions, difficulty in employment prospects, and high cost of living.
The Director of PT Traze Andalan Futures also assessed that social tension will pose political challenges for Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, even though the ruling coalition holds the majority in parliament. "Sustained disturbances can slow Indonesia's growth by reducing consumer confidence and foreign investment, amidst the shifting global supply chain and increase in US import tariffs," Ibrahim said.
Editor's Choice: Bank Indonesia Optimistic Rupiah May Strengthen Toward Rp16,000 per US Dollar
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