September 9, 2025 | 08:31 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - As the second week of September begins, the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) is forecasting an increase in rainfall across several areas of Indonesia. The potential for heavy rain and strong winds is anticipated in most of Sumatra and Java, as well as the central and eastern parts of the country.
This information was released by the BMKG in its Weather Outlook for the period of September 9-15. The forecast is influenced by several meteorological factors, including a negative Dipole Mode Index (DMI) value of 1.28. This value, the agency explained, increases convective activity in the Indonesian region, especially in the western part, which in turn leads to the formation of rain clouds.
Furthermore, a predominantly negative anomaly of Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) across most of Sumatra, Java, and central-to-eastern Indonesia indicates the growth of rain clouds. A negative OLR value means that a significant amount of radiation from the earth's surface is unable to escape into the atmosphere due to extensive cloud cover.
The presence of cyclonic circulation in the western Indian Ocean, near Bengkulu, and in the Makassar Strait also contributes to the weather conditions. This cyclonic circulation leads to the formation of wind convergence and confluence areas, which strengthen the development of rain clouds in the vicinity.
Due to these conditions, the BMKG has issued an early warning for heavy rainfall, accompanied by thunderstorms and strong winds, for several areas. Below is a list of the regions on alert.
September 9-11, 2025
Heavy rain: Aceh, North Sumatra, Bangka Belitung Islands, Bengkulu, Lampung, West Java, Central Java, Yogyakarta, East Java, Bali, West Kalimantan, West Sulawesi, North Maluku, Maluku, Southwest Papua, and Papua Highlands.
Strong winds: West Java.
September 12-15, 2025
Heavy rain: Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Bangka Belitung Islands, Bengkulu, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, West Sulawesi, Central Papua, Papua Highlands, and South Papua.
Strong winds: West Java.
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