February 17, 2026 | 10:30 am
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The two-day Chinese New Year holiday in Indonesia this year could circulate as much as Rp9 trillion (around US$570 million), according to Sarman Simanjorang, Vice Chairperson of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KADIN) for Regional Autonomy.
“This year’s Chinese New Year holiday is expected to boost economic productivity and household consumption,” Sarman said in a written statement on Monday, February 16, 2026.
The government has designated February 16–17 as national holidays for Chinese New Year. Sarman’s estimate of Rp9 trillion is based on household spending, tourism, and retail activity.
Household Spending
Indonesia’s Chinese-Indonesian population totals 11.25 million, roughly 2.8 million families assuming four members per household.
Sarman said a typical family spends on festive dinners and angpao (red envelopes). If each family spends Rp1 million, the total potential circulation from households alone could reach Rp2.812 trillion.
Tourism and Travel
Sarman estimates around 3 million Indonesians will travel domestically for tourism or family visits during the holiday, using planes, trains, and private vehicles. Assuming average spending of Rp500,000 per traveler, this adds about Rp1.684 trillion to the economy.
At Soekarno-Hatta International Airport, around 1.74 million passengers are expected to fly to major cities including Surabaya, Medan, Semarang, Banjarmasin, Pontianak, Bali, and Palembang. At an average ticket cost of Rp 1million, the total transaction value could reach Rp1.744 trillion.
For trains, Sarman projects 1 million passengers with an average fare of Rp150,000, totaling Rp150 billion. The high-speed train Whoosh is expected to handle 25,000 passengers at Rp250,000 each, generating Rp6.25 billion.
Retail Sector Impact
The Indonesian Retailers and Tenants Association (Hippindo) targets Rp53.38 trillion in transactions during Chinese New Year, Ramadan, and Eid al-Fitr combined. With a projected 5 percent boost in retail sales for Chinese New Year alone, potential money circulation could reach Rp2.669 trillion.
Adding up household, travel, and retail expenditures, Sarman estimates total circulation during the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday at Rp9.067 trillion — not including toll fees, fuel purchases, or sea travel.
Economic Outlook
Sarman is optimistic that the holiday spending will strengthen household consumption, a key driver of Indonesia’s economic growth. This surge is expected to contribute to the government’s target of 5.5 percent GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026.
He noted that the close timing of major religious holidays in the first quarter, including Eid al-Fitr, will further support economic activity.
“The Eid al-Fitr holiday generates the largest money circulation in Indonesia and marks the peak of household consumption,” Sarman said.
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