January 30, 2026 | 10:59 am
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Indonesia’s rainy season is expected to continue into the first ten days of February, driven by sustained Asian monsoon activity and the continued influence of the Cross-Equatorial Northerly Surge (CENS), according to the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG).
In its Weekly Weather Outlook for January 30–February 5, 2026, BMKG said the two weather systems have contributed to widespread heavy rainfall across parts of Indonesia in recent days and are expected to remain active in the near term.
The Asian monsoon is characterized by stronger winds over the South China Sea. Meanwhile, the Cross-Equatorial Northerly Surge (CENS), which is driven by cold air masses from the Asian continent crossing the equator, has been identified through increased wind speeds in the Karimata Strait.
CENS typically brings early-morning rainfall to Jakarta and surrounding areas, BMKG said.
BMKG also observed strong westerly winds over western and southern Indonesia.
These conditions have increased atmospheric convergence and confluence, enhancing the formation of rain-bearing convective clouds over several regions, including West Sumatra, southern Sumatra, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Central and South Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, the Papua Highlands, and South Papua.
Looking ahead, BMKG warned of the potential development of a low-pressure system over the Gulf of Carpentaria in northern Australia.
If formed, the system could further intensify atmospheric convergence over southern parts of Indonesia, increasing the risk of heavy rainfall.
“Given the significant weather potential, BMKG urges the public to remain vigilant and take preventive measures to protect themselves, their families, and their surroundings from extreme weather that could trigger hydrometeorological disasters such as floods, flash floods, and landslides,” the agency said.
Early Warning Alerts
BMKG issued the following early warnings for the coming week:
January 30 – February 1
Heavy to very heavy rain: West Sumatra, South Sumatra, Bangka Belitung, Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, Special Region of Yogyakarta, East Java, Bali, East Nusa Tenggara
Strong winds: East Nusa Tenggara, Maluku
February 2 – 5
Heavy to very heavy rain: Bangka Belitung, Central Java, East Java
Strong winds: East Nusa Tenggara, Maluku
Read: Rain Soaks Greater Jakarta Since Morning, Here's Today's Forecast
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