Fact Check: No, Indonesia's Economy Didn't Grow 8% Amidst Iran War

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - An account on Tiktok [archive], Prabgemoy, posted a claim that Indonesia's economic growth surpassed eight percent amidst Israel and the United States' war against Iran on March 15, 2026. The 29-second video cited the Free Nutritional Meal Program (MBG) as the main driving force behind this economic surge.

"While other countries are on survival mode, Indonesia's economy is actually growing! Turns out, MBG serves as a driving force behind Indonesia economic growth," the post narrates.

But is it true that amidst the global crisis caused by the war between Iran and Israel, Indonesia achieves 8 percent economic growth thanks to the free nutritious meal program?

FACT CHECK

Tempo verified the claims by interviewing an economist and checking various credible sources. The results showed that the free meal program did not drive Indonesia's economic growth to reach 8 percent amid the Iran war.

Teuku Riefky, a researcher at the Institute for Economic and Social Research (LPEM) at the University of Indonesia, explained that Indonesia's economic growth figures are measured quarterly by the Statistics Indonesia (BPS). The first quarter growth for 2026 will only be released in early May.

Meaning, no official growth report has been released by BPS in March 2026. "The next economic growth figures will usually be released on May 5, 2026," Teuku told Tempo on Monday, April 6, 2026.

The latest data published by BPS on February 5, 2026, recorded 5.39 percent year-on-year economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, far below the expected 8 percent. 

Meanwhile, the war between Iran, Israel, and the United States, which broke out on February 28, is expected to affect the national economy. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) projects Indonesia's economic growth to remain around 4.8 percent throughout 2026.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa remains optimistic that Indonesia's economic growth will reach six percent in 2026. This, however, is far below the claim narrated by the Prabgemoy account.

Earlier, the government was optimistic that Indonesia would achieve 8 percent by 2026. This was conveyed by Hashim Djojohadikusumo, presidential special envoy for climate and energy, during a speech at the CNBC Indonesia Economic Outlook 2025 event at The Westin Hotel, Jakarta, Wednesday, February 26, 2025. He also attributed the achievement to the Free Nutritional Meal Program (MBG).

The Free Nutritional Meal Program (MBG) kicked off on January 6, 2025. According to the National Nutrition Agency, MBG has served 55.1 million students across 19,188 Nutrition Fulfillment Service Units (SPPG) in 38 provinces. By the end of 2025, the program's budget realization reached Rp51.5 trillion, or 72.5 percent of the Rp71 trillion ceiling in the 2025 State Budget (APBN).

Teuku Refky believes that MBG is actually destroying the school cafeteria ecosystem that has supported the local economy. According to him, the largest profits are concentrated in the hands of the owners of Nutrition Fulfillment Service Units (SPPG) in urban areas. "MBG doesn't generate new economic growth; it actually widens the economic gap," said Riefky.

Airlangga University Economics Professor Rossanto Dwi Handoyo also doubted the MBG's immediate impact on the ambitious growth target. He explained that the contribution of government spending to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is still too small to trigger a drastic increase.

Currently, Indonesia's GDP is dominated by household consumption and investment, while government spending is below 15 percent. Rossanto predicts that the free meal program will have only a small impact on national growth even without budget leaks. "MBG is predicted to only provide leverage to the economy of around 0.1 to 0.3 percent," he said on Friday, March 27, 2026.

CONCLUSION

Tempo's investigation concluded that the claim of  Indonesia's 8 percent economic growth amidst global conflict and geopolitical tensions is false.

TEMPO FACT-CHECK TEAM

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