September 11, 2025 | 12:21 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Indonesia's Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) has released the China-Indonesia Province Index 2025, a study that measures the extent of China’s influence across Indonesia between August 1, 2024, and August 1, 2025.
The findings highlight China’s expanding footprint in multiple sectors, with the economy being the most dominant.
According to the report, China’s influence in Indonesia’s economic sector stands at 41.2 percent, covering trade, investment, and infrastructure.
“The economy remains the strongest domain for China’s presence,” said Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, Director of the China-Indonesia Desk at Celios, during the research launch in Jakarta on Wednesday, September 10, 2025.
Celios found that Chinese economic activities are most concentrated in North Sumatra (83.3 percent), followed by North Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, North Maluku, and East Kalimantan.
By contrast, no notable Chinese economic engagement was recorded in West Sumatra and the Papua Mountains region.
In the social domain, China’s influence is estimated at 22.1 percent, largely through diaspora networks, cultural festivals, and student exchanges. Bali tops the list with 50 percent, followed by North Sumatra (44.4 percent) and Jakarta (38.9 percent).
Political influence is also evident, with China’s role in local politics recorded at 12.7 percent. This is most visible in North Sumatra (40 percent) and Central Java (32.5 percent), where provincial governments and political actors have signed cooperation agreements and hosted official exchanges with Chinese partners.
“We see provincial governments and political figures actively engaging with Chinese counterparts through agreements, exchanges, and visits,” Zulfikar noted.
In academia, China’s footprint is also at 12.7 percent, through partnerships, scholarships, and research networks. The strongest influence was found in North Sumatra and East Java (40.9 percent each), West Java (34.1 percent), Bali (31.8 percent), and Yogyakarta (29.6 percent).
Other areas of influence remain smaller: technology (7.4 percent), foreign policy (3.6 percent), and media (0.7 percent).
Overall, Celios found Chinese influence to be more dominant in the western and central regions of Indonesia, such as North Sumatra, Bali, West Java, Central Java, East Java, and Sulawesi. Meanwhile, Kalimantan, Maluku, and Papua showed weaker levels of influence.
“Provinces in Papua show very little, or in some cases immeasurable, Chinese presence,” Zulfikar added.
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