TEMPO.CO, Bandung - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has predicted heavy rainfall in West Java during the period from May 11 to May 20, 2025. An early warning issued by the BMKG West Java Climatology Station identifies four areas as being on 'alert' for significant rainfall: Bogor, Sukabumi, Cianjur, and Garut.
Additionally, five other areas are categorized as 'cautious': Bandung Regency, West Bandung Regency, Bogor City, Subang, and Tasikmalaya.
In this second period of May 2025, BMKG forecasts that the northern coast (pantura) of West Java, which includes Bekasi, Karawang, Subang, Indramayu, and Cirebon, will only experience 0-50 millimeters of rainfall per period, placing it in the low category.
However, conditions are expected to be different in northern and eastern Bogor, Depok, southern Karawang, Purwakarta, West Bandung Regency, Cimahi, Bandung City, and parts of Bandung Regency, where moderate rainfall is predicted, with an intensity of 50-150 millimeters per period.
Moderate rainfall is also expected in southern Sukabumi, northern and southern Cianjur, northern Garut, Tasikmalaya, Ciamis, Banjar, Pangandaran, Kuningan, Majalengka, and Sumedang.
According to the same forecast, around 31 percent of West Java areas have the potential to receive high-category rainfall on a regular basis. This level of rainfall is between 150 and 300 millimeters per period. This area includes most of Bogor City and Regency, parts of Sukabumi City and Regency, parts of Cianjur, the southern part of Bandung Regency, most of Garut, Tasikmalaya, and the southern part of Subang.
Rakhmat Prasetia, Head of the West Java Climatology Station, mentioned several atmospheric factors contributing to the increased supply of water vapor in West Java for the upcoming week. These factors, which enhance the formation of rain clouds and the potential for rainfall, include Equatorial Rossby atmospheric waves, as well as warm sea surface temperatures in the surrounding waters.
"In addition to the presence of cyclonic circulation around Kalimantan, which is triggering the formation of convergence zones and changes in wind direction in the West Java region," he stated in a written release on Sunday, May 11, 2025.
The generally unstable atmospheric conditions also increase the likelihood of convective weather patterns. As the region enters the transition period between seasons, BMKG has observed a significant difference in temperature between morning and afternoon due to the intense solar radiation. When this is combined with the availability of water vapor in the atmosphere, it creates conditions that can trigger localized showers from the afternoon into the evening.
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