When Pope Francis was elected in 2013, the cardinals deliberately looked outside of Europe, seeking a courageous communicator who could confront scandals and bring reform to the troubled institution.
Now, as 135 selected cardinals prepare to enter the next conclave and choose the next pope, the mood has shifted. What criteria do they now desire from a pope?
The Mission for a New Leader
Vatican observers say that the cardinals are looking for a leader who will stabilize and unite-someone who can repair the institution shaken by Francis's revolutionary approach and restore tranquility to the Church's governance.
Francis's papacy has been marked by dramatic changes in tone and priorities, delighting reformers but alarming conservatives who accuse him of undermining Church doctrine. His reforms include allowing priests to bless same-sex couples in certain situations and overhauling the Vatican's bureaucracy, steps that have angered many traditionalists.
However, some progressive voices also feel frustrated, believing that Francis's changes have not gone far enough, especially regarding the role of women and same-sex marriage. The consensus among Vatican analysts is that the next pope should be a peacemaker: not rolling back Francis's progress, but also not pushing the boundaries too far.
Quoted by Al Jazeera, Massimo Franco, an experienced Vatican observer, summarized the existing sentiment: "We must move towards a pope who finds unity in the diversity of the Church, maintains a love for the poor, concern for the most marginalized, but also rebuilds, not restores, the Church's governing institutions."
Names of Potential New Popes
Several names are circulating as potential replacements for the Pope. Louis Antonio Tagle, 65, a progressive Filipino cardinal and a close ally of Francis, is seen as a strong contender and would be the first Asian pope. Cardinal Peter Erdo of Hungary, 72, is a traditionalist known for his opposition to divorced Catholics receiving communion and his anti-migrant stance.
From Africa, Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 65, is known for his defense of human rights and anti-corruption. Among the Italians, Pietro Parolin, 70, the Vatican's secretary of state and a key diplomatic figure, is frequently mentioned, as is Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, respected for his experience in Middle Eastern affairs.
Shifting to the Global South
Geographically, this conclave is more diverse than before. Pope Francis appointed 80 percent of the eligible voting cardinals, making the body much more representative of the Global South. The 135 voting cardinals come from 65 countries, with the number of Europeans now reaching 39 percent compared to 52 percent in 2013. This shift means more cardinals from Africa, Asia, South America, and Oceania, and fewer from North America and Europe.
Cardinals from Southern countries often support Francis's focus on social justice, migration, and climate change, but their views on social and gender issues may be more conservative. For example, Cardinal Ambongo, despite being appointed by Francis, opposes blessing same-sex couples, which contributed to a key Vatican decision weakening in 2023.
Another challenge is that many cardinals do not know each other and the complexities of the Church's central government. For at least 80 of them, this will be their first conclave, making the process daunting even for experienced church members. The internationalization of the College of Cardinals, a hallmark of Francis's legacy, means that many voters have little experience with global Church governance.
In the days leading up to the conclave, the cardinals-regardless of their qualifications to vote-gather for pre-conclave meetings to discuss the direction of the Church and the qualities needed in the next pope. These discussions provide insight into what the cardinals are looking for: a leader who can unite, stabilize, and guide the Church through a transition, balancing continuity with the need for healing and effective governance.
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