TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) says imposing a windfall tax on extractive companies could significantly boost Indonesia’s state revenue by tens of trillions of rupiah annually.
“The bad news is, it is currently on hold by the government,” Celios researcher Jaya Darmawan said during a discussion in Central Jakarta on Thursday, April 30, 2026.
A windfall tax is an additional levy imposed on unexpected or extraordinary profits earned by companies, for example due to a surge in global commodity prices driven by geopolitical dynamics.
As such, the tax is not applied simply because a company earns large profits.
“When there is an unexpected increase in net profit, it should also be shared with the state. So, it is not double taxation,” Jaya explained.
Jaya noted that windfall taxes have already been implemented in several countries, including the United Kingdom, Italy, and India. He said the UK was among the first to introduce such a tax on energy companies, applying it in stages.
Initially set at 25 percent, the rate was later increased to 38 percent in 2024. According to Jaya, the UK has used the additional revenue to stabilize its fiscal deficit and provide subsidies for low-income households.
Based on an assumed 25 percent windfall tax on coal exports and an exchange rate of Rp17,324 per US dollar, Jaya estimated that taxes on unexpected income from coal companies could generate up to Rp66 trillion in annual state revenue.
Beyond coal, he projected potential revenue of up to Rp14 trillion per year from nickel. Jaya noted that not all nickel production is used for electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing or energy transition projects.
He argued that production not linked to energy transition efforts should also be subject to a windfall tax. From an estimated output of around 2.2 million tons per year, about 1.8 million tons — the majority — has yet to be processed.
Assuming a 10 percent windfall tax rate, he estimated potential annual revenue of up to Rp14 trillion from nickel companies. Such revenue, he added, could help ease growing fiscal pressures.
In addition to a windfall tax, Jaya also called for the introduction of taxes on the 50 richest individuals in Indonesia, whose combined wealth is estimated at Rp4,600 trillion, much of it tied to the extractive sector.
He said that imposing a 2 percent tax on these ultra-wealthy individuals could generate up to Rp93 trillion in annual revenue for the state.
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