April 16, 2026 | 10:21 am
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly downgraded Indonesia’s economic growth outlook to 5 percent, from a previous estimate of 5.1 percent, as global risks intensify. The fund also trimmed its global growth projection to 3.1 percent from 3.4 percent.
In its latest report, the IMF said escalating tensions in the Middle East are weighing on the global economy through higher commodity prices, rising inflation, and weakened financial market sentiment. Developing economies, particularly those reliant on commodity imports, face greater vulnerability as currency depreciation compounds the impact of surging energy and food costs.
The IMF outlined several risk scenarios. In an adverse scenario, oil prices could jump by around 80 percent in the second quarter of 2026 to roughly US$100 per barrel, before easing by about 20 percent to US$75 per barrel in 2027.
Prices in Europe and Asia are expected to climb more steeply, potentially rising by up to 160 percent, while global food prices are projected to increase by 2.5 percent.
Under a more severe scenario, global oil prices could surge by 100 percent to about US$110 per barrel in the second quarter and remain elevated at around US$125 per barrel in 2027.
In this case, oil prices in Europe and Asia may spike by up to 200 percent. Food prices are also expected to climb more steeply, rising by 5 percent in 2026 and 10 percent in 2027.
The IMF further warned that global trade growth could slow significantly, dropping from 5.1 percent in 2025 to 2.8 percent in 2026, before recovering to 3.8 percent in 2027. The slowdown reflects the early impact of large-scale tariff measures, which may gradually be offset as countries adjust trade relationships and supply chains.
Indonesia, however, is seen as relatively resilient. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said the country has sufficient fiscal buffers to navigate global uncertainty.
“Our budget position remains solid, with fiscal reserves of around Rp420 trillion,” Purbaya said, as quoted by Antara.
In a statement issued on April 15, he added that the IMF had taken note of Indonesia’s capacity to withstand ongoing global headwinds, underscoring confidence in the country’s economic fundamentals.
Read: Indonesia Says No IMF Aid Needed Amid Global Uncertainty
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