February 20, 2026 | 03:39 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia (BI) Aida S. Budiman projects that inflation during the month of Ramadan will remain stable, with a slight increase above 3 percent. Aida stated that so far, food supplies are still well-maintained. Additionally, based on monitoring, prices remain within the projected range of BI.
However, Aida mentioned that the impact of the electricity discount in January and February 2025 will still be felt until March 2026, thus inflation figures are projected to remain above 3 percent until March 2026. "(Conditions during Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr) are all still stable. However, there is still an impact from administered prices due to the electricity discount that occurred last year, so we estimate the figure to be slightly above 3 percent," Aida said during a virtual press conference following the Board of Governors Meeting held on Thursday, February 19, 2026.
Meanwhile, inflation in January 2026 was recorded at 3.55 percent year-on-year with a Consumer Price Index of 109.75. This inflation figure exceeds the BI target inflation rate of 2.5 percent, plus or minus one percent, or an upper limit of 3.5 percent. However, Aida stated that this condition is only temporary due to the electricity discount last year. BI also projects that inflation will remain stable below 3 percent in 2026.
Deputy for Statistics of Distribution and Services at the Statistics Indonesia (BPS) Ateng Hartono previously stated that the soaring inflation in January 2026 was due to a low base effect. This effect occurs when the inflation growth rate for this year is very high because the comparison figure from last year or from January 2025 is very low.
Year-on-year inflation is primarily driven by housing, water, electricity, and household fuel prices based on expenditure groups. These prices experienced high inflation at 11.93 percent. This group contributed 1.73 percent of the total inflation. "The commodity with the largest share of inflation in this group is the electricity tariff," said Ateng during a press conference at the BPS office on Tuesday, February 2, 2026.
Read: Rupiah Remains Undervalued Despite Market Pressure, Says Bank Indonesia
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