TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Minister of Manpower Yassierli responded to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) report, which predicts Indonesia's unemployment rate will reach 5 percent in 2025.
"Yes, projections are permitted. However, according to last year's National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas), it has decreased to 4.76 percent," said Yassierli at the Presidential Palace, Jakarta, on Monday, July 2, 2025.
Yassierli stated that this figure was obtained from Sakernas in February for the unemployment rate. He mentioned that the Sakernas data in August will be a challenge as it coincides with the graduation time of educational institutions.
He also urged caution in interpreting the data because the government's calculations are based on the open unemployment rate, not just the percentage of graduates immediately absorbed into the workforce.
"Be careful. If we use the data, the open unemployment rate should be higher. If our basis is the total number, then the population increases as well," he said.
Yassierli mentioned that the government will use data on layoffs from the Workers' Social Security Agency (BPJS Ketenagakerjaan). This data will be integrated with the Ministry of Manpower's data. According to Yassierli, the Ministry of Manpower's data system has not been optimal because he has only been in office for seven months. Therefore, the Ministry of Manpower will not use data from the manpower office. Data from the office will only be used for comparison purposes.
"Later on, we will use data from the Job Loss Guarantee (Jaminan Kehilangan Pekerjaan) program. This data is clearer and more specific about when and in which province the layoff occurred, so we can be more precise," he said.
The IMF previously predicted that Indonesia's unemployment rate would reach 5 percent by 2025. This figure becomes the second highest in Asia after China, which is projected at 5.1 percent this year.
Based on the April 2025 edition of the World Economic Outlook, the IMF noted that the country's unemployment rate continues to rise. It was 4.9 percent in 2024, 5.0 percent this year, and 5.1 percent in 2026. Meanwhile, China's unemployment rate has remained at 5.1 percent from 2024 to 2026.
The IMF did not explain the detailed reasons for the projected increase in Indonesia's unemployment rate this year compared to last year. However, according to the institution, the global economy in 2024, which was beginning to stabilize after the COVID-19 period, has recently been turbulent since the implementation of import tariffs by the United States on April 2, 2025.
Ilona Estherina contributed to the writing of this article
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