TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Bureau of Meteorology has officially declared the onset of an El Nino phase. As a climate cycle, El Nino is expected to influence weather patterns across nearly 60% of the globe, including Australia.
Returning for the first time since 2023, this year's El Nino has also made headlines after being forecast as one of the strongest events in decades, earning nicknames such as "Super El Nino" and "Godzilla El Nino."
While the strength of an El Nino event doesn’t always translate directly into stronger impacts across Australia, especially as other climate factors shaped the overall weather as well, it’s still worth understanding what El Nino generally means for the country.
What does El Nino mean for Australia?
For Australia, El Nino is typically associated with drier and warmer conditions, particularly across the eastern and southern parts of the country during winter and spring. As the Pacific Ocean enters an El Nino phase, rainfall patterns tend to change, reducing the amount of moisture reaching large areas of Australia.
The Bureau of Meteorology's latest outlook for July to September 2026 suggests that parts of southern and eastern Australia are likely to receive less rainfall than usual, while most of the country can expect above-average temperatures.
However, that doesn’t necessarily mean rain will disappear altogether. Local weather conditions can still vary due to other climate factors, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), regional sea surface temperatures, and long-term climate trends.
Adding to drier conditions, El Nino can increase the likelihood of hotter days, heatwaves, elevated fire weather risks, and lower snow depths in Australia's alpine regions. While the current event is forecast to be strong to very strong, its real-world impacts will depend on how it interacts with other climate systems throughout the year.
How long will El Nino last in Australia?
Current forecasts suggest that El Nino conditions could persist through much of the second half of 2026. Its strongest influence typically occurred during the Australian summer before gradually weakening in the following year.
Previous patterns of Australia’s El Nino
Australia's most recent El Nino occurred between spring 2023 and early 2024. During that event, Australia experienced its driest August-to-October period on record, with a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole intensifying the dry conditions.
However, the impact of El Nino weakened toward the end of 2023. A series of east coast storms and four tropical cyclones brought above-average rainfall to many regions during the summer months.
Looking further back, no two El Nino events have played out exactly the same way. The 2002 event brought widespread dry conditions across much of the country, while the 2015 El Nino produced a far more varied pattern, with some regions turning drier and others receiving close to normal rainfall.
These differences highlight an important point: while El Nino often increases the chances of warmer and drier weather, it doesn't guarantee the same outcome every time.
Read: Australia Forecasts Stronger El Nino Conditions
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