TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) recorded that 39 percent of West Java has entered the dry season. Based on BMKG observation at the West Java Climatology Station in the first period of June 2026, there are 16 rain-free zones, including in the northern coastal areas (Pantura) of West Java.
The areas experiencing the dry season are Depok City, Bekasi City and Regency, Karawang, eastern part of Bogor Regency, northern part of Purwakarta region, Indramayu Regency, Cirebon City and Regency. Also, the southern part of Cianjur, Garut, Bandung Regency, Tasikmalaya City and Regency, Banjar City, southern Ciamis, and northern Pangandaran.
The longest rainless day is recorded in Karang Kendal area, Cirebon Regency, for 25 days. From June 11 to 20, 2026, BMKG predicts that 98 percent of West Java will experience low-category rainfall.
Based on BMKG's analysis, during the past week of June 7-13, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index, defined as the increase in sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Ecuador and Peru from its normal average, was at a value of +0.8 to +0.81. This condition indicates an influence on the decrease in rainfall in some parts of Indonesia, including West Java.
Nevertheless, some areas in West Java still experience locally scaled rain. The growth of convective clouds on a local scale is influenced by varying levels of atmospheric stability, ranging from light to strong.
"Based on rain intensity monitoring, during that period, there was no heavy rain in the West Java region," said BMKG West Java Climatology Station weather forecaster, Alita Nuraeni, in a statement on Sunday, June 14, 2026.
Based on the latest global climate analysis, the El Nino phenomenon has the potential to reduce rainfall in some parts of Indonesia, including West Java. From June 15 to 21, 2026, several atmospheric dynamics are expected to continue increasing the supply of water vapor and the growth of convective clouds in some parts of West Java. "Active Kelvin-type atmospheric waves at the beginning of the week," she said.
Furthermore, the relatively warm sea surface temperatures in some Indonesian waters support the supply of water vapor for cloud formation and air humidity in the West Java region. Meanwhile, atmospheric stability varies from light to strong categories.
Although rainfall in West Java generally decreases, there is still potential for light to moderate rain with localized occurrences. "Especially in the afternoon to evening in some parts of West Java," said Alita.
In addition, according to BMKG's forecast, there is still potential for moderate rain, accompanied by thunder and strong winds, on a local and short-duration scale. on Monday, June 15, in Bogor Regency and City, Depok City, Sukabumi Regency, Bandung Regency, and Garut. Then on Wednesday in Bogor Regency and Sukabumi Regency.
Read: BMKG Warns Convergence Could Trigger Heavy Rain in Several Indonesian Regions
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